Global Logistics Turbulence – Growing Pressure On Vietnam’s Agricultural Imports

In recent weeks, the global logistics landscape has become increasingly volatile. U.S.–China trade tensions have flared up again, oil prices have fallen as OPEC considers raising output, and domestic gold prices in Vietnam have surged by nearly 2 million VND per tael, reflecting a strong risk-averse sentiment in global markets.

1. U.S.–China Trade Tensions and Port Congestion Intensify.

According to Phaata, the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China continues to strain global supply chains.

• At major Chinese ports such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen, average waiting times have surged by more than 38%, reaching their highest levels since 2022.

• Stricter origin verification and customs clearance procedures are further delaying shipments, particularly for agrochemical and agricultural raw materials.

At the same time, while freight rates on many trade lanes are declining, the Trans-Pacific route has seen a 20% increase, despite being in the low season. Shipping lines are actively adjusting capacity, and the USTR port charge introduced by the United States is expected to become a long-term structural cost burden, rather than a temporary adjustment.

2. Oil Prices Ease — But the Market Remains Unstable.

Data from VTV shows that global oil prices have dropped to their lowest levels since May, as OPEC+ considers raising production and Chinese state-owned enterprises have halted Russian oil purchases.

However, experts warn this could be only a temporary pause, as geopolitical risks, conflicts, and extreme weather could cause fuel prices to rebound at any moment.

This uncertainty has forced shipping lines to frequently adjust Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF), directly impacting freight costs on routes from China and India to Vietnam.

3. Defensive Capital Flows and Supply Chain Restructuring.

The sharp rise of nearly 2 million VND per tael in domestic gold prices, alongside unstable international gold movements, reflects a global shift toward safe-haven assets.

Simultaneously, multinational corporations are restructuring their supply chains, relocating parts of their production from China to India, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff risks and stabilize logistics.

For Vietnamese enterprises, this represents both a challenge and an opportunity — to enhance production capacity, strengthen partnerships, and position themselves more competitively within the regional supply network.

4. Recommendations for Businesses and Importers.

Book shipments early and monitor actual sailing schedules to minimize “blank sailing” risks.

Compare shipping costs and transit times across China–India–Vietnam routes.

Prepare complete documentation (CO, MSDS, and chemical test certificates) to avoid customs delays.

Maintain reasonable inventory levels to prevent cost spikes during the year-end peak season.

Optimize domestic logistics — shorten cargo dwell time at ports and reduce inland transport expenses.

In summary, the logistics market is entering a sensitive yet dynamic phase — with both challenges and opportunities. Enterprises that remain proactive, flexible, and well-informed can maintain a stable supply chain and confidently navigate global fluctuations.