Ocean Freight Late 2025 – Early 2026: Freight Rates Decline But Logistics Remains Challenging

Entering late 2025 and early 2026, the global ocean freight and logistics market is facing a paradoxical situation: freight rates are declining, yet risks remain high. For Vietnam — a country heavily reliant on seaborne trade — these developments are directly impacting logistics costs and shipment planning for import-export businesses.

OCEAN FREIGHT RATES: DECLINING DUE TO OVERCAPACITY, BUT ONLY ON THE SURFACE

Since late 2025, ocean freight rates across many Asian trade lanes have dropped significantly due to:

• Oversupply of container vessels following massive fleet expansion during previous boom periods.

• Slower-than-expected global demand recovery.

In response, to offset operational costs and maintain profitability, shipping lines have not only implemented blank sailings and schedule adjustments but have also shifted focus toward increasing surcharges and local charges, including:

• Terminal Handling Charges (THC).

• Documentation fees (DOCS, DAF).

• Container Imbalance Charges (CIC).

• Cleaning fees, Peak Season Surcharges (PSS), and Fuel Surcharges (BAF/EBAF).

In reality, freight rates may decline, but overall logistics costs do not decrease proportionally. Many import-export businesses are facing situations where quoted freight rates appear low, but final invoices remain high, making cost forecasting and control increasingly difficult and quietly eroding profit margins.

OIL AND FUEL PRICES: VOLATILITY SUSTAINS COST PRESSURE

During late 2025 and early 2026, global oil prices have remained highly volatile due to geopolitical risks and production policies, continuing to pressure the shipping industry.

For carriers, fuel represents a major portion of operational expenses.

Fluctuations in oil prices often justify maintaining or introducing additional fuel surcharges, even when base freight rates decline.

For businesses, this means logistics costs remain relatively elevated despite the apparent cooling of freight rates.

RISING GOLD PRICES: A SIGNAL OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND INDIRECT IMPACT ON LOGISTICS

Persistently high gold prices during this period reflect a defensive market sentiment amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties by:

• Encouraging businesses to adopt more cautious ordering strategies.

• Increasing shipment fragmentation and last-minute bookings.

These trends further destabilize supply chains, increasing vessel delays and port congestion.

IMPACT ON VIETNAM’S TRADE ROUTES

Currently, the China–Vietnam and India–Vietnam trade lanes are experiencing:

• Unstable vessel schedules.

• Frequent delays caused by cargo consolidation at upstream ports or waiting for port berthing slots.

• Container imbalance issues.

These combined factors place Vietnamese import-export businesses under dual pressure:

• Freight rates appear cheaper, but final logistics costs remain high.

• Surcharges are difficult to monitor and control.

• On-time delivery becomes more challenging amid fluctuating port and vessel schedules.

In conclusion, ocean freight in late 2025 and early 2026 is no longer simply about whether freight rates rise or fall. Instead, it reflects the complex interplay between declining base freight, increasing surcharges, fuel price volatility, and cautious market sentiment.

For Vietnamese businesses, the key challenge is not just securing lower freight rates but managing total logistics costs and operational risks in an increasingly unpredictable market.