Since the Lunar New Year – particularly following the God of Wealth Day (10th day of the first lunar month) – gold prices both domestically and globally have continued to rise sharply and remain at elevated levels.
This movement is not merely seasonal; rather, it reflects heightened volatility and uncertainty across the global financial landscape.
WHY HAS GOLD RISEN SO STRONGLY?
Escalating Geopolitical Risks
Recent developments in the Middle East – notably military operations involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran – have intensified regional security concerns, affecting maritime trade routes and energy supply chains. Such instability has prompted investors to shift toward gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing prices higher.
Safe-Haven Capital Flows
Global financial markets have experienced significant volatility. When equities, bonds, and other risk assets become unstable, capital typically reallocates into defensive assets such as gold—especially amid weakening market confidence.
Continued Net Gold Purchases by Central Banks
Gold demand is driven not only by retail and institutional investors but also by governments and central banks. Several countries—particularly China—have continued to increase gold reserves to diversify foreign exchange holdings and mitigate USD-related risks. This represents a structural factor rather than a short-term phenomenon.
Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors
• USD and Interest Rates: Although expectations of rate cuts are less pronounced than before, uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and persistent inflation risks continue to support demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• Strong Global Demand: Both physical gold markets and investment products (such as gold ETFs) have recorded substantial inflows, reinforcing gold’s role as a long-term hedge against systemic risk.
Short-Term Market Volatility
Gold prices briefly reached a historical high above USD 5,600 per ounce in late January 2026 before correcting amid a stronger U.S. dollar and shifting interest-rate expectations. Nevertheless, prices remain significantly higher compared to previous years.
Consequences Include:
• Reallocation of global capital flows.
• More cautious lending practices by financial institutions.
• Increased pressure on corporate liquidity and cost of capital, particularly for import–export enterprises.
IMPACT ON VIETNAM AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE
• Elevated gold prices exert psychological pressure on financial markets.
• The VND/USD exchange rate becomes more sensitive amid global capital volatility.
• Import-dependent businesses face rising input costs.
• Exporters must strengthen payment risk management and monitor demand fluctuations in overseas markets.
For import–export enterprises, this period requires:
Close monitoring of exchange rate movements.
Proactive foreign currency planning.
Greater flexibility in contract negotiation and execution.
CONCLUSION
The current surge in gold prices reflects elevated global financial and geopolitical risks.
For import–export businesses, this is not merely a fluctuation in a precious metal market—it is a macroeconomic signal underscoring the need for tighter exchange-rate management, stronger cash-flow control, and enhanced trade risk mitigation in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
