Vietnam Agricultural Market 2026: Pressure Is Shifting From Demand To Costs

In Q1 2026, Vietnam’s agro-forestry-fishery exports are estimated at USD 16.69 billion, indicating that demand from key markets such as China, the EU, and the US remains relatively stable.

However, the market is no longer about whether products can be sold, but rather:
👉 whether profitability can be maintained

🍈 ON THE DEMAND SIDE, MARKET SEGMENTATION IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT

Durian and coffee continue to maintain strong price levels thanks to export demand, while rice remains relatively stable but is increasingly divided between premium and standard segments.

At the same time, rising freight costs and longer transit times due to global logistics disruptions are making buyers more cautious and more aggressive in price negotiations.

⛽ THE BIGGEST PRESSURE NOW COMES FROM ENERGY AND PRODUCTION INPUTS

Rising fuel prices are pushing up transportation, warehousing, and logistics costs across the board. Meanwhile, fertilizers, crop protection raw materials, and seeds are also fluctuating due to both energy prices and global supply conditions.

👉 As input costs rise without a corresponding increase in selling prices, margins across the entire value chain—from exporters to farmers—are being squeezed.

🌱 As a result, farming practices are gradually shifting: instead of maximizing output, producers are focusing more on cost efficiency and output quality.

💡 In this context, input solutions—especially effective, stable, and well-traceable crop protection products—are increasingly becoming a key lever to help farmers manage risks and maintain production efficiency.

📌 OVERALL, THE MARKET IS NOT WEAK—BUT IT HAS BECOME MORE CHALLENGING IN A DIFFERENT WAY

The issue is no longer about selling, but about optimizing profitability amid continuously rising and volatile costs.

Therefore, in the current season, instead of expanding acreage or investing aggressively, farmers are advised to:

• Stabilize existing farms: maintain plant health and ensure consistent fruit quality
• Manage input costs wisely: avoid cutting critical inputs, but also refrain from over-investing when prices are high; aim to stay in control of input costs
• Focus on export standards (residue compliance, appearance, traceability), as these directly determine actual selling prices

👉 Strong prices present an opportunity, but in a volatile cost environment, maintaining stable yields and consistent quality is what ultimately maximizes overall returns.